Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 5.344111 6.370223 7.506151 8.852140 10.398467 12.114191 14.156559
2025-02-23 3.500765 4.783498 6.368075 8.447220 11.078614 14.271495 18.408869
2025-03-02 2.387534 3.693586 5.472400 8.020571 11.516623 16.077150 22.395513
2025-03-09 1.780217 3.076238 4.998599 7.965524 12.316835 18.334333 27.123461
2025-03-16 1.340154 2.570477 4.545426 7.805693 12.876893 20.252871 31.520496
2025-03-23 1.136419 2.382313 4.519128 8.246594 14.325029 23.525433 38.079658
2025-03-30 0.927156 2.124868 4.317829 8.353034 15.235896 26.050529 43.720970
2025-04-06 0.753759 1.885906 4.094383 8.369726 15.975295 28.344499 49.160429
2025-04-13 0.613457 1.673876 3.873897 8.344411 16.617842 30.510700 54.533599
2025-04-20 0.564432 1.648840 4.008806 8.985208 18.473372 34.790716 63.577422
2025-04-27 0.489885 1.542704 3.956109 9.251112 19.670256 38.042691 71.138705
2025-05-04 0.433121 1.464715 3.947327 9.597278 21.039449 41.677411 79.557640
2025-05-11 0.357145 1.315873 3.760029 9.565414 21.719270 44.215030 86.392346
2025-05-18 0.280318 1.137548 3.467052 9.263915 21.840900 45.769033 91.649878
2025-05-25 0.214301 0.965010 3.147484 8.847559 21.674797 46.768456 95.980869
2025-06-01 0.175714 0.867492 2.999923 8.803891 22.273019 49.241505 103.126240
2025-06-08 0.140435 0.765344 2.814390 8.635517 22.577580 51.159760 109.353874
2025-06-15 0.128884 0.752235 2.884169 9.118008 24.365848 56.116694 121.567279
2025-06-22 0.109875 0.698349 2.817652 9.234720 25.331644 59.479682 130.912050
2025-06-29 0.091855 0.639309 2.720399 9.253179 26.068578 62.420645 139.598296
2025-07-06 0.076040 0.581688 2.613023 9.225704 26.690551 65.159235 148.031057
2025-07-13 0.073679 0.594682 2.753368 9.923420 29.129835 71.868584 164.672503
2025-07-20 0.065439 0.570076 2.753722 10.212758 30.587697 76.568345 177.504348